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Every Possible Starting Point, Overlaid
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Each line is a retirement that began in a different year, using your same numbers. Everything is shown in today's dollars: inflation from each era has already been factored out, so the heights are directly comparable.
Why the Average Isn't Enough: Sequence-of-Returns Risk
Two retirements with nearly identical average returns and opposite outcomes. The only thing that changes is the order in which the good years and bad years arrived.
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The Worst Years to Have Retired
Ranked by what was left at the end, in today's dollars. If your plan survives these, it survives almost anything.
| Retired in | Lasted | Left at the end | Average for the period | First 5 years |
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The Grid: How Much You Can Withdraw Based on Your Portfolio
Success rate with 30 years ahead, crossing what you withdraw each year against your stock allocation. Your combination is outlined.
| Withdrawal rate | 0% stocks | 25% | 50% | 75% | 100% |
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The most surprising lesson: a portfolio with no stocks isn't the cautious choice when you need to withdraw for decades. Bonds don't keep pace with inflation, and a withdrawal that rises every year eats right through them.
What Each Figure Means
A quick look at every field and every result.
The money you have invested on the day you stop contributing and start withdrawing. How much you need to get there is calculated by the FI number calculator.
What you take out of the portfolio in the first year. In later years it's never adjusted by hand: it rises with whatever inflation actually occurred that year, to preserve your purchasing power.
The first-year withdrawal divided by the starting balance. It's the figure behind the famous 4% rule. You don't enter it directly: it's derived from the two numbers above.
Of all the historical retirements possible with your numbers, the percentage that still had money left at the end. It's not a future probability: it's a tally of what actually happened.
When the bad years arrive early. While you're accumulating, the order barely matters; while withdrawing, it's decisive, because selling low early on leaves fewer shares left to recover later.
All final balances have inflation for the period factored out. That way $100,000 from a retirement that began in 1950 can be compared with one that began in 1990.
How to Use This Calculator
Steps to use the calculator (expand)
- Starting balance: the money you'll have invested on the day you stop contributing and start withdrawing. If you don't yet know how much you need to get there, the FI number calculator works it out.
- First-year withdrawal: what you'll take out of the portfolio in the first year. Later years are never adjusted by hand: they rise automatically with whatever inflation actually occurred, so you keep your purchasing power.
- Years it needs to last: how long the money has to hold out. A typical retirement runs about 30 years; if you're retiring early, set it to 40 or more and watch the success rate drop.
- In stocks: your equity allocation, with the rest going to bonds. Try lowering it to 0%: you'll discover that a portfolio with no stocks is not the cautious choice when you need to withdraw for decades.
- Annual fees: your funds' TER, subtracted from your return every year. An index fund typically runs 0.15-0.30%; an actively managed one can top 1.5%.
- Watch the withdrawal rate: you don't enter it, it's calculated automatically by dividing your withdrawal by your balance. It's the figure behind the famous 4% rule.
- Read the results top to bottom: first the success rate, then the duel between the best and worst starting points (that's where the sequence-of-returns lesson lives), and finally the grid, which shows at a glance which combinations hold up and which don't.
Frequently Asked Questions About This Tool
Is the 4% rule still valid?
As a starting point, yes; as a guarantee, it never was. It came from studying the U.S. market over 30-year periods, and here you can confirm that with balanced portfolios it holds up across the vast majority of historical starting points. But if your retirement is going to last 40 or 45 years, or if you'd simply sleep better, lower the rate to 3% or 3.5% and watch the success rate climb. The tool shows you exactly that with a single slider.
Why does a portfolio with no stocks fare so poorly?
Because your withdrawal rises with inflation and bonds don't. It's counterintuitive: during accumulation, bonds cushion volatility, but over a thirty-year withdrawal the enemy isn't volatility — it's the loss of purchasing power. The grid shows this with data: the higher-stock columns hold up at withdrawal rates the bonds-only columns can't sustain.
Where does this data come from?
From the annual series of S&P 500 total returns (with dividends) and 10-year U.S. Treasury bond returns published by Aswath Damodaran (NYU Stern), from 1928 to 2025, combined with U.S. inflation (CPI) for those same years. It's the same source used by the historical returns simulator in this toolbox.
Why only U.S. market data?
Because no other country has a market history of nearly a century with this level of quality and detail, and sequence-of-returns risk needs to see complete crises: 1929, the stagflation of the 1970s, the dot-com crash, and 2008. What matters here isn't the specific country — it's the shape of the risk. That said, these figures are nominal in dollars with U.S. inflation applied: treat this as a general rehearsal of how the risk behaves, not a precise prediction for a portfolio held in another currency.
Does this include taxes?
No. Each withdrawal is taxed, and that bite reduces what actually reaches your pocket. Tax treatment varies widely by country and account type, so it's outside the scope of this tool. A prudent way to use this calculator is to enter the after-tax amount you actually need as your annual withdrawal — somewhat above your real spending target.
What if my plan comes out looking bad?
There are four levers, and none of them require predicting the future: withdraw less in the early years, work a little longer to arrive with a larger balance, keep a cash reserve so you're not forced to sell during downturns, or accept trimming your spending in bad years. Flexibility early on is worth more than any forecast — precisely because of sequence-of-returns risk.